在第二季度收益令人失望后，应该买入还是卖出特斯拉股票？

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特斯拉 (NASDAQ: TSLA) 周二公布了第二季度财报后，是时候评估该公司的长期生存能力了。该公司的未来取决于其扩大生产规模和满足中国竞争对手的承受能力。

最新财报公布后，特斯拉股价下跌 10%，前景黯淡。但特斯拉电动汽车的数据说明了什么呢？

特斯拉的盈利情况

截至 6 月 30 日的第二财季，特斯拉总营收同比增长 2% 至 255 亿美元，超出预期 8 亿美元。不过，汽车业务营收同比下降 7% 至 198.7 亿美元。特斯拉净利润同比下降 45% 至 14.7 亿美元。

在营业利润率 6.3% 同比下降 -333bp 的情况下，特斯拉资本支出同比增长 10% 至 23 亿美元，其中运营费用总计 30 亿美元，加上税费 4 亿美元，整体来看，特斯拉 255 亿美元营收的成本为 209 亿美元。

换句话说，特斯拉的营业利润率同比下降-333个基点（1个基点等于0.01%），意味着特斯拉处于亏损状态，因为收入超过了成本。

从投资角度来看，由于 S3XY 降价和交付量下降，特斯拉股东的预期较低。虽然这一低上限使该公司的收入超过了预期的 246.3 亿美元，但特斯拉未能超过每股收益 0.46 美元的预期，报告的每股收益为 0.42 美元，令人意外地下降了 8.7%。

在连续四个季度未能超过每股收益预期后，特斯拉第二季度报告得出了以下展望：

“2024年，我们的汽车销量增长率可能明显低于2023年的增长率。”

特斯拉的非电动汽车收入来源

特斯拉仍然主要是一家电动汽车公司，其 78% 的收入来自电动汽车销售。其余收入分为 10% 的发电和存储收入以及 12% 的服务收入，例如汽车服务、零件和配件销售以及超级充电网络。

能源部门的收入同比增长 100%，达到 30 亿美元，而服务部门的收入增长 21%，达到 26 亿美元。然而，特斯拉在能源领域的投资应该有一些注意事项。

随着特斯拉将电池采购渠道从比亚迪和松下多元化为自主生产，该公司还增加了对中国宁德时代新能源科技股份有限公司 (CATL) 的依赖，以获得用于 Model 3 和 Model Y 的方形 LFP 电池。

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比亚迪和丰田：特斯拉的主要竞争对手

Whether it is speedrail or eVTOL deployment, it is no secret that a tech gap is widening between the West and China. Likewise, China has now the most advanced and mature EV market, making for a competitive environment that results in scaling and lower costs for the end-consumer.

According to latest data from China EV insurance registration ending July 21st, Tesla is ranked third EV manufacturer in China, courtesy of cnevpost.com:

• BYD – 187,300

• Li Auto – 30,200

• Tesla – 28,400

• Nio – 13,300

• Xiaomi – 7,500

• Xpeng – 5,400

With BYD EVs outselling Tesla EVs at 6.6 ratio, BYD’s most recent entry in May is likely to widen that gap. BYD’s Seagull costs only ~$12,000 against Tesla’s cheapest Model 3 (RWD) at around $38,990. Moreover, Tesla’s upcoming affordable EV, referred to as the Model 2 in 2025, is not expected to be priced under $25,000.

For Tesla to survive that kind of competition, the company would have to rely on aggressive government interventionism. The EU already obliged, having set provisional 37.6% duties on China-imported EVs, on top of existing 10% tariff, totaling up to 48%.

Although this appears to go directly against the EU’s green agenda, it seems that protectionism overrides it. At the same time, Toyota’s bet on hybrids instead of pure-EV play is turning into a huge success.

During 2023, Toyota outpaced all automakers in sales except G.M. in the US. Toyota’s electrified car lineup spanning hybrids, plug-in and battery EVs accounted for over 657,327 units sold.

In Q1, the company’s lineup of xEVs, accounting for BEV, HEV, PHEV and FCEV, increased by 74% year-over-year to 206,850. As Toyota achieved high double-digit growth during that quarter, Tesla reported a 9% YoY decline to 386,810.

Even without BYD in the picture due to government interventionism, this trend doesn’t bode well for Tesla as a pure-play EV company. Lastly, Tesla’s canceling of one-piece gigacasting process points to a hard ceiling when it comes to scaling of manufacturing operations.

Can Robotaxi and Optimus Boost Tesla’s Bottom Line?

Rescheduled from August to October 10th, Tesla’s shareholder sentiment is now hinging on the robotaxi reveal. Specifically, if there are milestone advances in making full-self driving (FSD) capability viable.

In no uncertain terms, Tesla views robotaxi service expansion as the saving grace in the Q2 earnings report.

“Though timing of Robotaxi deployment depends on technological advancement and regulatory approval, we are working vigorously on this opportunity given the outsized potential value.”

Cathie Wood valued that “outsized potential” at $2,600 per TSLA share by 2029, expecting that Tesla would churn 90% of income from autonomous driving and hailing services. Expectations from Optimus humanoid robots are somewhat muted, with commercialization beginning in 2026.

与此同时，特斯拉持有 307 亿美元现金、现金等价物和投资，同比增长 33%。TSLA 股东希望这能为成功部署自动驾驶出租车服务提供足够的跑道来应对比亚迪、丰田和监管/技术障碍。

如果 10 月 10 日未能激发热情，您是否认为特斯拉股价将创下新的 52 周低点？请在下方评论中告诉我们。

免责声明：作者不持有或持有本文中讨论的任何证券。

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